Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD oscillates around $1,810 on volatile DXY, focus is on Fed minutes

  • USD/INR takes the bids to refresh intraday high, snaps two-day downtrend.
  • Progress on US-China trade ties, firmer yields underpin cautious optimism in Asia.
  • Anxiety ahead of the key data/events joins fears of aggressive central banks, recession to weigh on market sentiment.
  • Pullback in oil prices fails to please INR bulls amid fears of economic slowdown.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is testing the upside break of the consolidation formed in a narrow range of $1,806.60-1,809.89 in the early Tokyo session. On a broader note, the precious metal has turned sideways after a firmer rebound from Friday’s low at $1,784.55.

The gold prices are likely to remain on the tenterhooks ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday. The detailed viewpoint from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers on the economic indicators of the US economy especially on the inflation rate and growth projections will support the market participants to adjust their positions on associated assets. Also, investors will be able to scrutiny the further direction of the yellow metal and US dollar index (DXY) in a more informed manner.

Meanwhile, the DXY is holding itself above the psychological resistance of 105.00 comfortably. The DXY is expected to remain sideways till the European session as higher volatility at the open leads to a contraction in the same. This week, apart from the Fed minutes, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be of significant importance. As per the market consensus, the US economy added 270k jobs in June, lower than the prior release of 390k.

Gold technical analysis

The gold prices are forming a Bullish Pennant chart pattern on an hourly scale that displays a consolidation phase, which is followed by a sheer upside move. The consolidation phase indicates an initiative buying structure in which those investors initiate longs, which prefer to enter after an establishment of the trend. The precious metal is auctioning above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,808.23, which indicates a bullish bias.

However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in a 40.00-60.00 range, which signals the unavailability of any potential trigger as it will continue the consolidation process.

Gold hourly chart



Today last price1809.73
Today Daily Change2.53
Today Daily Change %0.14
Today daily open1807.2
Daily SMA201831.28
Daily SMA501845.67
Daily SMA1001891.02
Daily SMA2001845.74
Previous Daily High1814.37
Previous Daily Low1804.05
Previous Weekly High1841.05
Previous Weekly Low1784.55
Previous Monthly High1879.26
Previous Monthly Low1802.79
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%1807.99
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%1810.43
Daily Pivot Point S11802.71
Daily Pivot Point S21798.22
Daily Pivot Point S31792.39
Daily Pivot Point R11813.03
Daily Pivot Point R21818.86
Daily Pivot Point R31823.35

(Reporting by AJFX Limited, Editing by Shivangi Jadav)

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